Heat Roadmap Europe 3 is from work package 2 of the STRATEGO project.
The overall aim in STRATEGO WP2 is to develop low-carbon heating and cooling strategies, which are called Heat Roadmaps, and subsequently to quantify the impact of implementing them at a national level for five EU Member States, which are Czech Republic, Croatia, Italy, Romania, and the United Kingdom.
These countries vary considerably in terms of population, climate, resources, and energy supply, so the key results, conclusions, and recommendations presented in this report can inform national energy policy across all of Europe.
HRE3/Stratego started by creating national energy models, including hourly profiles. Using geographical mapping, the demand and supply potential for heating and cooling was mapped. By including the cost of energy savings, a reasonable heating and cooling demand in 2050 was determined. Using this (geographic) demand data, the potential for district heating and cooling was quantified. By quantifying available excess heat and estimating available renewable resources, the renewable heat resources in Europe were mapped. This was used to model the energy system on EnergyPLAN, allowing for an analysis of the efficiency, renewability, and cost of a system with integrated heating and cooling demands.
The overall conclusion is that a combination of energy efficiency measures, in the form of heat savings, district heating in the urban areas, and heat pumps in the rural areas, reduces the energy system costs, energy demand, and carbon dioxide emissions in all five STRATEGO countries for the year 2050 compared to a ‘Business-As-Usual’ projection.
In 2009 the European Council made the objective for the EU to decarbonise its energy system to at least 80% below the 1990 level by 2050, without affecting general economic growth. A scenario which achieves these goals is the Energy Efficiency scenario in the Energy Roadmap 2050 report by the European Commission. The Heat Roadmap Europe scenario proposed here achieves these same CO2 reduction, but at a lower cost.
Heat Roadmap Europe is the first study on the EU27 scale which combines geographical mapping of energy demand and supply in unprecedented detail with detailed energy system modelling. Heat Roadmap Europe identifies the potential for using local resources across Europe, and subsequently applies this in the EU27 energy system. Local conditions are considered using geographical information systems (GIS) and combined with hour-by-hour energy system analyses for the EU27, which enables us to find a robust strategy to increase competitiveness, integrate more renewables and reduce the risks in the energy supply. By analysing heat savings and energy efficiency, by investigating local conditions, and by making energy system analyses we are able to identify a balance between heat savings and key infrastructural changes in the energy supply.The results are recommendations for a redesign of the European heat supply.
Heat Plan Denmark was the first ever study that combined local mapping of the heat demand with national energy planning to create a holistic heat strategy for an EU Member State. It outlined how various solutions could be combined in the heating sector of Denmark, to simultaneously reduce energy costs and decarbonise the Danish heating sector. It was first published in 2008, with a follow-up study in 2010, both of which were instrumental in defining Danish policies for the heating sector.
HRE1 was developed to understand if this was possible on a European scale, and if it was possible to make a geographic and system analysis of the European heating sector, in addition to introducing the idea that district heating could play a significant role in decarbonising the EU energy system, as well as suppressing costs.
The main outcomes were a validation of the potential district heating had in reducing costs, primary energy supply, integrating renewables, and creating a local economy for energy. Additionally, HRE1 allowed for the validation of the methodology, and the identification of improvements in the data and methodological processes.
This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989.